Quiet convulsions
It is correct to think that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is at the strongest political point in his career. Ironically, he is also at his most vulnerable, even though not many see his position from this angle. However, just beneath this terra firma lurk simmering issues, which, though shapeless and without headline grabbing capacity at the moment, can shake the very foundation on which his political edifice is built.The first challenge relates to ties with India. Or to be more precise, issues in ties with India. On the face of it, things aren shaping up badly even on that front. After encouraging statements from Delhi through its high commissioner to Pakistan the prospects of foreign secretaries talks have brightened up a bit. Occasional poisonous statement from this or that Indian minister aside, ballistic rhetoric is at its lowest. Borders are quiet. But these encouraging signs aren the real measure of the problem that Prime Minister Sharif has to overcome to make his peace pitch to India viable, sustainable and mutually beneficial: this problem is the Pathankot investigation.The Sharif government has moved forward with legal proceedings by registering the First Information Report against the alleged perpetrators of the attack. With this step some clarity has come to the path Pakistani investigators are pursuing in unravelling the mystery of the attack. Yet this step has come after much ado and confusion. The run up to the FIR has not been smooth. Newspapers published stories suggesting that the civil military joint investigation team had found no evidence of any Pakistan based organisation involvement in the attack. One news report suggested that this team had concluded that Delhi accusations had no basis.Then the United Jehad Council of Commander Salahuddin did the incredible thing by holding a press conference in Muzaffarabad and openly owned the Pathankot attack. The bizarre claim is tantamount to inviting international sanctions besides encouraging India to pursue the dangerous path of hot pursuit. But the claim did not create any ripple. It canada goose outlet houston was ignored by everyone, even though it did confound what at that time looked like a fuzzy picture. It took a few weeks after this presser to get the process of initial investigation to yield the FIR.This troubled background to this first step towards the government delivering on its promise of getting to the bottom of the Pathankot incident speaks loudly about how treacherous this journey is. And this is just the beginning. The Sharif government is now carrying on canada goose jacket outlet store its back the growing burden of international expectations that these legal proceedings will not be long, and largely fruitless. Not meeting these expectations will have implications, ranging from Pakistan diplomatic isolation to, potentially, cries for sanctions. Pakistan could have totally ignored these pressures except that, unlike the Mumbai attacks, with its strange happenings and twists and turns, parts of the Pathankot incident have been caught on tape quite literally.Reports suggest that Delhi Western friends have considerable evidence to pin the origin of this attack down to the planners. Diplomatic sources say that digital snooping and call tracking systems have produced a fairly accurate map of the incident planning. If this is true, legal proceedings in Pakistan are, from the point of view of international expectation, not about meeting a certain moral requirement to pacify angry emotions; they are a litmus test of how committed the government is to handle groups that seem to operate without any concern for the implications of their actions, and against whom the state of Pakistan through its frequent declarations has been expressing a canada goose outlet florida strong intent of taking decisive steps.This litmus test would have been milder if it were the first one of its kind. Unfortunately, this isn the case. Since the Kargil days a string of events has weakened Pakistan diplomatic hand in adopting a posture of plausible deniability of responsibility of neutralising groups that operate with impunity. In fact such has been the nature of these events that Pakistan detractors are now loaded with diplomatic ammunition to bombard the country with accusations that have no easy counters. So in case of Pathankot, the drag till it dies course of action isn available. If swift action is delayed, India will find many international helpers to build a vastly convincing case along the lines of David Coleman Headley confessions. And that would be terrible for the country and its institutions.The canada goose outlet store new york Sharif government or for that matter any government cannot afford to let the Pathankot issues drift in that direction. It has to avoid a situation where cross border terror accusations begin to damage the core of Pakistan establishment. But in order to avoid that scenario it needs to dig out the truth and take action against the network involved in Pathankot. That it cannot do alone. It needs the army to be totally on its side.As far as appearances go, this should not be difficult. The two Sharifs are inseparable these days. But pictures are deceptive especially when it comes to dealing with embarrassing issues. What is the extent to which the army will back Nawaz Sharif in his effort (or compulsion) to decisively deal with powerful proscribed groups that command formidable resources and have deep ingress in powerful circles? No one knows. This is the big dark hole from where no light of information escapes. This is where you only meet silence.What does the prime minister do in this situation? Does he go it alone and face the brunt or backlash for his actions in the shape of a tidal wave of urban terror that unhinges the very stability he claims is his strength. Or does he wait and play ducks and drakes in the hope of this storm blowing over really a non option. This is a bad spot to be in.Ironically, he is in this spot when his ties with General Sharif are facing another set of strains related to both policy and public posturing. A public case is being canada goose outlet black friday built that all the successes in the National Action Plan are the army hard work and all the failures belong to the other side. From release of funds for the internally displaced people of Fata to JITs in Karachi cases to madressah reform and other matters, complaints expressed through proxies are piling up.The usual suspects from print and electronic media are peddling theories of civilian incompetence being an existential threat to national security. This is a perfect foil for General Raheel Sharif image of a deliverer, which is now on full display through love you posters and my hero rallies all command performances of course, but who would dare prove that!This must breed immense anxiety and apprehension in the prime canada goose outlet location minister camp, whose first reaction in all such matters is generally defined by paranoia. The prime minister swipe at NAB has in part been driven by an expanding suspicion that Major (r) Qamar Zaman Chaudhary has found new tune callers and is on an alleged mission to smear and disparage all that is civilian. However, to the army powerful generals such worries in the Sharif camp would look like justifications for autocratic actions of a politician who has made a career out of blaming other institutions for his own follies.The cumulative result of these quiet convulsions could come in the shape of deeper distrust between the army and the Sharif government at a time when the two have to work together to ward off dangerous diplomatic and terror threats to the country. In the months ahead as decision time to appoint the new army chief gets closer and international pressure mounts on the government to do more to control groups operating from its soil against its claims and declarations, Prime Minister Sharif hot seat will likely become hotter.Keeping it cool and stable will require some doing and a lot of luck. Ironically, he is also at his most vulnerable, even though not many see his position from this angle. However, just beneath this terra firma lurk simmering issues, which, though shapeless and without headline grabbing capacity at the moment, can shake the very foundation on which his political edifice is built.The first challenge relates to ties with India. Or to be more precise, issues in ties with India. On the face of it, things aren shaping up badly even on that front. After encouraging statements from Delhi through its high commissioner to Pakistan the prospects of foreign secretaries talks have brightened up a bit. Occasional poisonous statement from this or that Indian minister aside, ballistic rhetoric is at its lowest. Borders are quiet. But these encouraging signs aren the real measure of the problem that Prime Minister Sharif has to overcome to make his peace pitch to India viable, sustainable and mutually beneficial: this problem is the Pathankot investigation.The Sharif government has moved forward with legal proceedings by registering the First Information Report against the alleged perpetrators of the attack. With this step some clarity has come to the path Pakistani investigators are pursuing in unravelling the mystery of the attack. Yet this step has come after much ado and confusion. The run up to the FIR has not been smooth. Newspapers published stories suggesting that the civil military joint investigation team had found no evidence of any Pakistan based organisation involvement in the attack. One news report suggested that this team had concluded that Delhi accusations had no basis.Then the United Jehad Council of Commander Salahuddin did the incredible thing by holding a press conference in Muzaffarabad and openly owned the Pathankot attack. The bizarre claim is tantamount to inviting international sanctions besides encouraging India to pursue the dangerous path of hot pursuit. But the claim did not create any ripple. It was ignored by everyone, even though it did confound what at that time looked like a fuzzy picture. It took a few weeks after this presser to get the process of initial investigation to yield the FIR.This troubled background to this first step towards the government delivering on its promise of getting to the bottom of the Pathankot incident speaks loudly about how treacherous this journey is. And this is just the beginning. The Sharif government is now carrying on its back the growing burden of international expectations that these legal proceedings will not be long, and largely fruitless. Not meeting these expectations will have implications, ranging from Pakistan diplomatic isolation to, potentially, cries for sanctions. Pakistan could have totally ignored canada goose outlet canada these pressures except that, unlike the Mumbai attacks, with its strange happenings and twists and turns, parts of the Pathankot incident canada goose outlet have been caught on tape quite literally.Reports suggest that Delhi Western friends have considerable evidence to pin the origin of this attack down to the planners. Diplomatic sources say that digital snooping and call tracking systems have produced a fairly accurate map of the incident planning. If this is true, legal proceedings in Pakistan are, from the point of view of international expectation, not about meeting a certain moral requirement to pacify angry emotions; they are a litmus test of how committed the government is to handle groups that seem to operate without any concern for the implications of their actions, and against whom the state of Pakistan through its frequent declarations has been expressing a strong intent of taking decisive steps.This litmus test would have been milder if it were the first one of its kind. Unfortunately, this isn the case. Since the Kargil days a string of events has weakened Pakistan diplomatic hand in adopting a posture of plausible deniability of responsibility of neutralising groups that operate with impunity. In fact such has been the nature of these events that Pakistan detractors are now loaded with diplomatic ammunition to bombard the country with accusations that have no easy counters. So in case of Pathankot, canada goose outlet seattle the drag till it dies course of action isn available. If swift action is delayed, India will find many international helpers to build a vastly convincing case along the lines of David Coleman Headley confessions. And that would be terrible for the country and its institutions.The Sharif government or for that matter any government canada goose victoria parka outlet cannot afford to let the Pathankot issues drift in that direction. It has to avoid a situation where cross border terror accusations begin to damage the core of Pakistan establishment. But in order to avoid that scenario it needs to dig out the truth and take action against the network involved in Pathankot. That it cannot do alone. It needs the army to be totally on its side.As far as appearances go, this should not be difficult. The two Sharifs are inseparable these days. But pictures are deceptive especially when it comes to dealing with embarrassing issues. What is the extent to which the army will back Nawaz Sharif in his effort (or compulsion) to decisively deal with powerful proscribed groups that command formidable resources and have deep ingress in powerful circles? No one knows. This is the big www.elcortezlv.com dark hole from where no light of information escapes. This is where you only meet silence.
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